Forty trillion US dollars. That is how far the debt of the US government has now risen — a milestone that the headlines treat above all as a warning sign. Our current AI market outlook deliberately turns the question around: is US government debt really the risk — or the tailwind carrying the equity market in the short term? The answer our model arrives at may come as a surprise.
As in every month, the basis is our CaesarDPT indicator analysis. Of the four currently most significant signals — the oil price, the gold price, S&P 500 patterns and US Sector Strength — three are clearly green, only one clouds the picture. The model-based expected value for the S&P 500 over the coming 20 trading days is +0.72% — above the long-term average of +0.61%.
In the second part we assess the latest Nvidia figures and what structurally falling costs per token mean for the AI investment cycle. New in our High-Conviction Top 10: Hinge Health, an AI health-tech holding whose investment thesis we present for the first time in this issue.
Our own strategies also benefited from the recovery in August: the thematic certificate Alpha AI Leaders gained +16.5%, and our Top 25 Equities Fund is ahead of the Nasdaq-100 year to date at +18.7%. The full positioning for September — including every individual holding, the weightings and the question of where we last added
The full report is reserved for CaesarDPT clients
The detailed assessment of all four indicators, our full positioning and the six-page Hinge Health analysis are available in the CaesarDPT terminal. Not a client yet?